These folks will be pleased with Trump’s plans for unapologetic MAGA midterms.
Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images
As the clock ticks down toward the midterm elections, Republicans are desperate for the Trump administration to focus on advancing an affordability agenda that might bring back some of the voters they’ve lost since the 2024 election. Sure, there’s the possibility of a housing bill finally being enacted, not that anyone believes it will have an immediate impact on the cost of shelter. And yes, the president’s Iran peace deal, if it sticks, will relieve upward pressure on energy prices, especially the gasoline prices politicians follow obsessively. But with all the chaos currently afflicting the GOP legislative and messaging machine, it’s likely too late for the party to put together a compelling argument that Trump is keeping the promises he made to bring back pre-pandemic prices and place a steady hand on the national tiller.
So, sooner rather than later, Republican candidates will have to give up their dream for a Trump pivot and accept whatever message the president is offering. And what might that be? Politico has an answer:
President Donald Trump believes he handed Republicans a winning playbook for the midterms — if only they’d follow it.
Gerrymander everywhere possible, get rid of the filibuster, fire the Senate parliamentarian and pass the SAVE America Act.
To a remarkable extent, this reflects an understanding of the midterms as being strictly about which party controls the landscape, rather than what either is saying to persuadable voters. Democrats are going to try to rig the midterms, Trump believes (or claims to believe), by deploying many millions of illegal votes. So the way to beat them is to counter-rig the election while doing everything possible to suppress Democratic voting, which is to a significant extent “fraudulent.” It’s a straight-out power play, and Trump is furious that his troops care about stupid traditions like the filibuster or the Byrd Rule (the basis of the Senate parliamentarian’s objection to a party-line vote on the SAVE America Act), rather than crushing the opposition with an iron fist.
From Trump’s point of view, the only reason Republicans have any chance to maintain control of the U.S. House is the audacious gerrymandering campaign he initiated last summer. As he would put it, “Nobody’s seen anything like it.” Yes, he needed an assist from the U.S. Supreme Court, whose late-April Callais decision unlocked a whole new avenue for partisan gerrymanders in the South. And no, southern Republicans didn’t max out on their opportunities as Trump preferred (leaving majority-Black congressional districts in place, for now at least, in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and South Carolina). But the unapologetic exercise of raw partisan power has served the GOP well, and Trump’s prescription is more of the same.
Let’s say for the sake of argument that John Thune surrenders to the constant pressure from the White House, or is overwhelmed by a Trump-inspired revolt from his own conference, and finds some way to pass the president’s “full version” of the SAVE America Act, which includes a ban on no-excuse voting by mail and some nasty transphobic provisions. The House, which in February passed an earlier version limited to proof-of-citizenship voter ID, would have to pass the full bill. If that really happened, and the legislation survived a blitz of legal challenges, its fruits would be the most chaotic run-up to a national election since the 19th century. Voter-registration systems would be turned upside down as the new and very onerous requirements were implemented. Millions upon millions of citizens might have their right to vote challenged as Republicans pursued voter-roll purges to get rid of “unqualified” election participants. The 37 states that currently have no-excuse voting by mail — including 13 of the largest 14 by population — would have to completely overhaul all of their election plans overnight. For the seven states where voting is virtually all done by mail, the switch would be catastrophic.
If the midterms are a game, tossing this toxic legislation into the mix at this late date is the equivalent of flipping the board.
If, alternatively, the SAVE America Act fails or is held up in the courts, Trump has a plan B: Run on it, and on the core MAGA proposition that the fiendish plot by Democrats to import criminals from around the world to vote illegally is a lot more urgent a problem than high living costs.
From the perspective of swing voters, particularly those who might have voted for Trump in 2024 because they were upset about inflation or thought Democrats weren’t governing very effectively under their octogenarian president, this pitch is questionable. It’s basically an effort to convince them that Trump has been right all along and that they should join the MAGA cause and come to rallies and hoot “USA! USA!” and learn to appreciate the golden age this president has given us. It’s a swing-voter message only Donald Trump could settle on, and its abiding advantage is that it will immensely please his confirmed MAGA base, promising no compromise with the hated foe and lots more of what he’s been offering since 2015.
Republican political professionals and candidates running in swing states or districts may not be jazzed about this approach, yet they have no choice but to get with the program. Nearly all of them have made a devil’s bargain to follow this man, and as he often reminds them, his coattails are responsible for the power they now hold. And if it doesn’t work in November, there’s always the kind of postelection overtime effort Trump showed himself willing to undertake in 2020 and 2021.
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