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- The Russians are attacking with armored vehicles again after a long break
- Mechanized assaults occur every few days in the east—and now in the south
- Ukrainian forces have defeated every major mech assault
- Infiltrating Russian infantry are more successful in “sowing chaos” in key Ukrainian strongholds
Russian forces have begun attacking with tanks and other armored vehicles again after a long break from mechanized assaults. And while most of the mech assaults target the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, Russian vehicles are also on the move in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine.
“Looks like the tempo is a mechanized attack every few days,” analyst Jompy wrote.
The outcome for the Russians has been the same in the east and the south. Destroyed and damaged vehicles. Dead crew and passengers. But that doesn’t mean the Russians aren’t advancing. While vehicles burn, some Russian infantry are still slipping past Ukrainian defenses—on foot.
A little past noon on Monday, the Russian army’s 71st Mechanized Brigade mustered a powerful force for an attack on positions defended by the Ukrainian army’s 118th Mechanized Brigade in Mala Tokmachka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Zaporizhzhia.
The Russians mobilized two companies with 26 vehicles, according to the Ukrainian 17th Army Corps, which oversees the 118th Mechanized Brigade. The vehicles included tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and Tiger armored trucks.
“They attacked in waves,” the 17th Army Corps reported. “And … were defeated.”
The corps claimed it knocked out two tanks, 12 IFVs, six APCs and two Tigers with drones, artillery and tanks that “worked in harmony.”
“Not a single position was lost,” the 17th Army Corps added. “The situation is under control.”
The corps apparently has a drone advantage over the southern front. “On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian units on secondary sectors of the front experience a shortage of UAVs and are forced to steal drones and components, including blades and engines, from other units,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.
The Kremlin is clearly much more focused on Pokrovsk than it is on Mala Tokmachka. Indeed, Russian advances just south of Pokrovsk, led by the elite 90th Tank Division—the biggest division in the Russians army—may open an east-west path toward Zaporizhzhia city for Russian forces sooner than any attack from the south can do.
Infiltrations into Pokrovsk: quiet but effective
Russian mechanized assaults aren’t necessarily the Ukrainians’ biggest problem, however. Many of the biggest Russian tank columns are traveling along the same road toward the village of Shakhove, which anchors Ukrainian defenses northeast of Pokrovsk.
Relentlessly surveilling and mining that one road, the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps has been able to defeat every Russian mech assault since the Kremlin ordered tanks and other heavy vehicles back into action in large numbers several weeks ago.
But the scores of wrecked Russian vehicles belie Russian advances in key areas.
Sneaking across the chaotic no-man’s-land on foot, or worming their way through disused gas pipes or hastily built tunnels, Russian infantry have managed to slip into Pokrovsk.
Sheltering in basements and abandoned buildings, the Russian infiltrators ambush Ukrainian troops and civilians and “sow chaos in the Ukrainian rear,” analyst Playfra explained. If enough Russians can accumulate and consolidate inside Pokrovsk, they could make the city indefensible for the Ukrainians—and compel Ukrainian commanders to make the hard but probably inevitable decision to order a retreat.
If that happens, it won’t necessarily be the Russian tanks that captured Pokrovsk. The battle could be won—slowly but inexorably—by Russian infantry traveling on foot or crawling on their bellies.
The infiltrations aren’t big and dramatic. But they work where mech assaults often fail. They are, according to analyst Vitaly, “slow but reliable.”
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