Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Volume Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA, OTRI.USA
The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) — which measures truckload demand — hit an all-time low for the month of October last week, registering a value of 9,311. This places the index roughly 19% lower than last year and 15% below 2023 for the same period. Normally, a collapse of this magnitude would trigger a corresponding drop in tender rejections and spot rates. However, nearly the opposite has occurred: rejection rates (OTRI) are higher than both 2023 and 2024 levels, while spot rates have moved erratically over the past two weeks but trended mostly upward. This suggests that capacity is leaving the market faster than demand is declining — but let’s dive deeper.
A common question people ask is, “How many trucks are on the road?” While intuitive, that’s an incomplete question. There could be a million trucks available for 500 loads, and we could still face a capacity problem if those trucks aren’t in the right places. This type of imbalance happens frequently, even in well-supplied markets, though the effects are usually short-lived.
The rise of freight brokers and load boards has improved carrier visibility and connectivity with available freight. These tools accelerate market response times, which can make rates volatile in the short term but help prevent prolonged capacity shortages.
Nearly every carrier network operates out of balance. Carriers are constantly repositioning equipment from markets with excess inbound freight to those with greater outbound demand. Southern California is the quintessential example of this imbalance.
In Los Angeles, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) consistently exceeds the Inbound Tender Volume Index (ITVI). Without carriers intentionally driving in empty — or “deadheading” — this market would quickly run out of available trucks.
Carriers compensate by charging higher rates for loads leaving undersupplied markets like Los Angeles (known as headhauls) and lower rates for freight leaving oversupplied markets (known as backhauls).
One of the most well-known backhaul markets is Lakeland, Florida, where tender data indicates nearly twice as much outbound freight as inbound freight. This imbalance is why rates from central Florida are typically among the lowest in the country.
Over the past 18 months, long-haul demand — defined as loads moving more than 800 miles—has fallen about 30% year-over-year. Much of this decline is due to freight shifting toward rail and intermodal service. With many shippers pulling inventory forward and extending domestic delivery timelines, the urgency to move freight by truck has diminished.
Intermodal currently offers near-record savings compared to trucking, making it an easy choice for shippers who can use it. But this shift has disrupted connectivity between regions, making trucking more regionalized and harder to maintain as a national network. As a result, the market has become more vulnerable to demand spikes in long-haul lanes.
This trend is showing up in the data: long-haul tender rejection rates (LOTRI) climbed to 12.5% this month, the highest since May 2024. At that time, a wave of unexpected West Coast imports — driven by concerns over maritime service stability — caused a temporary surge in rejections. The most recent surge had no accompanying volume.
Recent crackdowns on immigrant and non-domiciled drivers may also be contributing to tightening conditions. California, a frequent target of Trump administration enforcement efforts, has seen more scrutiny than other states, suggesting regional political bias in regulatory actions.
While there is a case to be made that recent redoubling of efforts by ICE on the trucking sector may be a factor recently, it is hard to say that it has been the case all year long. Rejection rates increased without a similar increase from demand in July and August before falling back in September. This is more supportive of carrier network challenges than regulatory activity.
Spot rates from Los Angeles to Chicago — a lane that competes heavily with intermodal—have been increasingly erratic throughout 2025 and trending higher since May. Anyone operating in this lane on the transactional side has likely experienced growing inconsistency in available capacity.
FMCSA data analyzed by Carrier Details shows capacity continues to exit the market at a rapid pace. This data is more reflective of the multi-year freight downturn than ICE raids and regulatory pressure. The added strain from the government is helping to exacerbate the effects of the long running freight recession and making it less vulnerable to the worsening demand side economics.
The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.
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